President Donald Trump made news recently with comments about the Pope and AI-generated images that upset many people of faith. While some branches of Christianity are reliable Republican/Trump voters, others, especially Catholics, are swing voters. A Pew Research Center poll from earlier this year showed a declining approval for the president with people of faith even before these instances.
By The Numbers:
White evangelicals were the only large religious group in which a large majority (69%) still approve of the president, down 11 points from last year (78%).
Barely half of white Catholics (52%) and white Protestants (46%) approve of Trump, down 7 points and 11 points, respectively.
Fewer religiously unaffiliated (24%), Hispanic Catholics (23%), and Black Protestants (12%) approve of the president, down 9 points, 8 points, and 6 points, respectively.
The Bottom Line: The Catholic vote has shifted from largely Democratic to a genuine swing group, usually splitting 50/50 and mirroring the national vote. In 2000, George W. Bush won 47% of Catholics, and in 2004, 52%. In 2008 Barack Obama won 54% of the Catholic vote and narrowly carried it by 2 points in 2012. In 2016, Trump won 52% of the Catholic vote, then lost it to Joe Biden, a Catholic, by roughly five points in 2020. Trump won this group back in 2024. Catholics will be swing voters in this year’s midterm, Many key districts have a higher-than-average Catholic population. The headlines from the President’s recent Truth Social posting take attention from messaging that can help win this fall. Instead, they’re diminishing support for the president among people of faith, especially Catholics.
