NBC News offered some more positive than usual news for Republicans, with Democrats having a smaller lead on the Generic Ballot than other recent polls. Other numbers in the poll offer insight into the overall national mood and where the president and GOP must improve.
By The Numbers:
In every Midterm election since 1998, voters viewed their ballot choice as a signal of support for the sitting president: Bill Clinton in 1998 (+5), George W. Bush in 2002 (+12), and Barack Obama in 2010 (+1).
Voters more often than not viewed their vote as a signal of opposition of the sitting president: George W. Bush in 2006 (-15), Barack Obama in 2014 (-8), Donald Trump in 2018 (-4), Joe Biden in 2022 (-13), and Donald Trump today (-16), with over 40% of voters saying their choice in November will signal opposition to the sitting president.
The Bottom Line: Election Day is just 40 days away, with early and absentee voting already underway in key swing states. While candidates cannot always control the broader political environment or developments at the national level, campaigns can control how they respond and communicate with voters. With the economy likely to remain a central issue, campaigns should clearly articulate their economic priorities, highlight the differences between the parties’ approaches, and explain how their proposed policies would affect voters.
