The Trump 2024 coalition was created in part with large gains with Latino voters, lifting Republicans across the country to victory. While Republicans have held on to some of those gains, this demographic has shifted over the last two years according to a recent NBC News/Telemundo poll, cementing it as a pivoted swing voting block.
By The Numbers:
At this point in 2016, 21% of Latino voters said they preferred Republicans in the November elections compared to 64% who said Democrats. At this point in 2020, 28% said they preferred Republicans to 56% who said they preferred Democrats. And at this point in 2024, 42% said they preferred Republicans to 54% who said Democrats.
Republicans saw similar growth during the last two midterm elections. At this point in 2018, 26% of Latino votes said they preferred Republicans to 60% who picked Democrats, up 5 points from two years earlier. At this point in 2022, Republicans did even better, with 33% of Latino votes saying they preferred Republicans to 54% who said Democrats.
Today, however, support for Republicans among Latinos has dropped slightly compared to the last midterm. Only 35% said they prefer Republicans win the November elections, compared to 59% who said they prefer Democrats.
The Bottom Line: Republicans should consider the shift with this important demographic a warning. It isn’t just the recent ICE actions on immigration, but perceived failed promises on the economy that have depressed support from this group. Democrats, however, should not celebrate too early. Their image hasn’t improved in two years. Republicans are still polling better than in pre-2024 years, while Democrats haven’t done much to close the sale.
