President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is near the lowest of any president before a midterm election, according to the latest New York Times/Siena University poll. While this has impacted the generic ballot (Democrats +11), it’s also making it difficult for Republicans down ballot to win over low-propensity or depressed Republicans and voters in MAGA base.
By The Numbers:
Trump’s approval has dropped to 34% with registered voters (36% with likely voters), down from 42% at this point before the 2018 midterms. The only president in the last eighty years with a lower approval going into Midterm Elections was President Harry Truman who stood at 33% at this point in 1946, when Democrats went on to lose 54 seats in the U.S. House and 11 seats in the U.S. Senate.
Trump has defied low approval ratings before. However, he’s sliding with voters beyond just Democrats. He’s declining with those who helped form the GOP base in 2024. Trump’s approval is down with all groups where he made large gains, but especially with voters 18-29 approval (16%), Hispanic likely voters (29%), those 65 years old and older (42%), and white/no-college voters (51%).
The Bottom Line: With just 12 days until Election Day, every campaign is making final decisions on how to spend remaining campaign dollars, which voters to hyper-target, and which messages to close on. As Republican voters are sluggish to support the ticket and/or turn out and vote, most of these resources and efforts should be focused on getting these voters to vote and vote Republican. The New York Times highlighted this urgency in their poll when they pointed out, “The Republicans lead among only one group by likelihood of voting: those who said they were not at all likely to vote.’”
