Polling News

There are states where each party’s legislative strength significantly exaggerates their presidential vote. The Center for American Politics analyzed 48 states and found Republicans do a better job of leveraging the presidential vote patterns for state Senate and House majorities than Democrats have. 

Why It Matters: Republicans have gotten more votes out of their presidential baseline than Democrats. Looking ahead to 2023 and 2024 elections, it’ s imperative that Republicans out-organize Democrats again.  

By The Numbers:

• Democrats exceeded their presidential performance by 10 points in seven states: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico and Rhode Island.
• Republicans exceeded their presidential performance by 10 points in twenty-one states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.  
• Democrats have surpassed their presidential baseline by 5-9 percentage points in six states: Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Maryland and Vermont. 
• Republicans have bested their presidential baseline by 5-9 percentage points in six states: Georgia, Louisiana Montana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Texas. 

The Bottom Line: Republicans have done better than Democrats on the state level in recent years, but that’s no guarantee of future success. Just this week, special elections tipped the balance of power in the Pennsylvania House and threaten GOP control in New Hampshire. Candidate quality, messaging, and organization all play a huge roll in these state races, particularly in Virginia this fall, where control of the state House and Senate are at stake.