It’s no secret that the Democratic Party is going through an identity crisis, but a New York Times analysis found that the party’s malaise has translated into tangible effects. Democrats have lost ground in voter registration in every single one of the thirty states that tracks party registration.
By The Numbers:
Democrats lost approximately 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with the District of Columbia. Republicans gained 2.4 million registered voters across these states.
In the 30 states, Democrats had an eleven-point advantage on Election Day in 2020. That advantage shrunk to just six points in 2024. The decline did not end last November. Today, there are 160,000 fewer registered Democrats than there were on Election Day 2024, while there are roughly 200,000 more Republicans than there were on Election Day 2024.
Democrats have declined especially with younger voters, men, and Hispanic voters. Democrats accounted for 66% of new registrants under 45 years old in 2018. In 2024, Democrats were only 48% of new registrants under 45 years old. Forty-nine percent of men registering to vote for the first-time registered Democrat in 2020. In 2024, only 39% of new male registrants were Democrat. Democrats also saw drop off in Hispanic registrants in swing states like Florida and North Carolina.
The Bottom Line: In recent years, Republicans have invested time, energy, and resources to voter registrations in key states. This effort has begun to pay off, especially as Democrats lose their way on their brand and mission. The task for Republicans now is to capitalize on these gains, to ensure these new registrants were not just a fluke in the last election, but reliable members of the GOP moving forward.
