Since Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the presumptive Democrat presidential nominee, we’ve seen a remarkable consolidation of the fractured Democratic Party and rallying of the skeptical media. While Donald Trump’s numbers didn’t move much following the assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention, Harris, whose favorable/unfavorable numbers have long been anemic, saw improvement nationally, but more importantly, in key battleground states, according to the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey.
By The Numbers:
Harris has a one-point lead in the swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI), leading Trump 48%-47%. President Joe Biden lagged by two points in these states before he dropped out of the race. Biden stood at 45% to Trump’s 47%, so this movement was not due to anyone leaving Trump, but rather the Democrat base coming home to Harris.
Harris took the lead in AZ (49%-47%) and NV (47%-45%), while doubling Biden’s previous lead in MI (53%-42%). Harris led in WI (49%-47%) and was tied in GA (47%-47%).
Trump is still slightly ahead in NC (48%-46%) and PA (50%-46%), but not as dominant now as in surveys past.
The Bottom Line: This is just one survey and there have been several since the top of the ticket change. When Biden dropped out on July 21, Trump was at 47.9% in the Realclearpolitics.com aggregate, to Biden’s 44.8%. The first round with Harris at the top of the ticket had Trump at 47.5% to Harris’s 45.9%. Trump has improved slightly to 48.1% and Harris stands at 46.2% but that may be the result of one outlier survey that gave Trump a seven-point lead. There’s no doubt that Harris benefits not only from a compliant media, but also unforced errors on the GOP side. Republicans lack a cohesive unified line of attack on Harris–with some GOP leaders resorting to attacks that bordered on racism and sexism. However, Harris is just as responsible for the state of the country as Biden and her views are far more extreme than his. Sticking to the far-left issues of the Biden Administration’s Border Czar is a must-win strategy. Getting every Republican candidate on this page sooner than later will be key to holding on to these states in less than 100 days.
