There have been the equivalent of years of news cycles since the Republican National Convention last week, considering since that time President Joe Biden ended re-election campaign and Vice President Kamala Harris clinched the Democratic nomination. However, we’re still in the window where a party’s nominee can benefit from a convention polling “bounce.” These have been on average about five points, but less in recent years as the electorate becomes more polarized and rigid.
By The Numbers:
President Bill Clinton had the biggest bounce in the last 40 years with a 16-point increase in his polling following the 1992Democrat National Convention.
John Kerry and Mitt Romney share the record for the worst bounce of any candidates in the last 40 years, each losing one point following their respective conventions.
The Bottom Line: Donald Trump saw a three-point bounce following the 2016 GOP National Convention and a one-point bounce following the 2020 RNC, although that convention was different given the COVID-19 adjustments. Trump’s 2024 post-convention bounce may not materialize given that Biden dropped out of the race just three days after Trump’s acceptance speech in Milwaukee. It will be next week before we see if Trump’s convention bounce doesn’t materialize because of the drama around Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s elevation.
