With news of the first indictment and arrest of a former president in history taking place last week, many Americans have wondered what the effect would be on President Donald Trump’s bid to return to the White House next year. An early indication comes from a poll from Issues & Insights/TIPP: the indictment may hurt the former president.
Why It Matters: The possibility of indictments have been hanging over Mr. Trump’s campaign for months, and it appears that does not instill confidence in him among Republican voters, with support for Mr. Trump dropping 4 points in the last month.
The new polling found that Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, a potential presidential contender, increased his vote share in the last month as well, rising to 23% and holding second place in the contest despite taking fire from the former president. Mr. Trump is not the only one in trouble according to the new polling, however; support for President Joe Biden’s candidacy fell below 40% among Democrats and independents who lean left.
By The Numbers:
Time for Change: Both leading contenders on each side of the White House race are below 50% on their respective sides. While it’s early in the race with a lot of runway and hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent on both sides, neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Biden command absolute support within their own party. While there is no apparent serious candidate positioned to take on Mr. Biden in a nomination battle, this polling shows the Republican side of the race may quickly turn into a real fight, should Gov. DeSantis launch a bid for the presidency.
The Bottom Line: The likely Democratic nominee–Mr. Biden is weak–with his own base today. Republicans should work to keep it that way as long as they can by hammering on the problems that the Biden Administration has created and should own. As for the battle for the GOP nomination, it’s notable that Mr. DeSantis has taken a lot of fire in the last month from Mr. Trump yet is still slowly gaining among Republicans. Time will tell if that momentum can hold, but Team Trump cannot be comforted by this latest poll, the first to be run since the New York indictment have had time to be absorbed by voters.
