There are roughly 270 days until the 2026 Midterm Elections, and Republicans find themselves playing defense after suffering a historic special election loss in Texas this week. The latest Fox News poll shows that Democrats have a significant generic ballot advantage and are grabbing control of some of the issues Republicans used to win in 2024.
By The Numbers:
Democrats have a six-point advantage on the generic ballot (52% to 46%). They lead with black voters (74-26%), voters under 30 (64-36%), college educated voters (58-41%). Republicans lead with white evangelicals (70-29%), rural voters (59-38%), and non-college educated voters (54-44%).
The Democratic base is more united, winning 95% of self-identified Democrats compared to Republicans winning just 92% of self-identified Republicans.
More worrisome, however, is the change in voter trust on issues. Republicans are trusted more on border security (+15), national security (+12), immigration (+5), and the budget deficit (+2), but their margin is down. More voters now trust Democrats on taxes (+1), affordability (+14), helping the Middle Class (+14), vaccines (+16), health care (+21), and trans issues (+22).
The Bottom Line: If 2024 was the immigration and affordability election, 2026 is shaping up to be the affordability and health care election. Republicans risk falling into the trap that plagued the Biden Administration–focusing more on charts, rather than the pain real people feel. Republicans cannot surrender affordability, Middle Class welfare, or health care if they are to be successful this fall.
