Polling News

A national poll from the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School found fewer Americans 18-29 years old plan to vote (49%) than said so at this point in the 2020 Election (57%). The 12-point decline in those “definitely” was driven by a decline among younger Republican and independent voters “definitely” planning on voting.

By The Numbers:

• Only 56% of young Republicans say they “definitely” plan on voting, compared to 66% who said the same in 2020. Only 31% of young independents say they’re “definitely” voting, compared to 41% who said the same in 2020. Young Democrats are relatively the same – 66% today say they’ll “definitely” vote, compared to 68% at this point in 2020.   
• The decline was also evident with black and Hispanic Americans. Only 38% of younger black voters say they’ll “definitely” vote, compared to 50% in 2020. Only 40% of young Hispanics say they’ll “definitely” vote in 2024, compared to 56% in 2020.
• The decline was seen across education lines as well. Fifty-five percent of young college educated voters “definitely” plan to vote, compared to 68% in 2020. Only 40% of young non-college voters “definitely” plan to vote, compared to 48% in 2020.  

The Bottom Line: It’s hard not to question whether the Republican and Democrat front-runners are responsible for this lagging enthusiasm in younger voters. With young Republicans showing a bigger drop off than young Democrats, it would reason to believe that Donald Trump’s large leads nationally and in the early states would depress these younger voters, who may have hoped for another option.  While young Democrats haven’t fallen off as far, the decline in college educated, black, and Hispanic voters should concern Team Biden.