When it comes to predicting the future, special elections are problematic. The timing, turn-out patterns, and environment can be unique and different than the regular election cycle itself. They can show possible trends, however.
By The Numbers:
Decision Desk HQ compiled the U.S. House special elections so far in 2025 and found Democrats over-performed by an average of 20 points in special elections this year compared to the 2024 presidential election.
The special election for TX-18 saw the biggest shift left–28.4 points. Close behind was the special election for FL-01 earlier this spring which swung 22.6 points towards the Democrats from the 2024 presidential election.
Tuesday’s race in Tennessee’s 7th District produced the weakest shift toward Democrats in congressional special elections this year, only a 13-point shift.
The Bottom Line: Both parties walked away from Tuesday with positive and negative data. Republicans showed they can turn out the vote in an off-year election. Democrats showed the environment is in their favor and voters trust them more when it comes to the economy and cost of living. Democrats have been over-performing in the low turnout special elections this year, but what should concern the GOP is that Tuesday’s turnout was not necessarily low. As of this posting, 179,899 votes were cast, almost identical to the number for the 2022 TN-07 Midterms. Considering this, 2026 will require more than base turnout. Republicans will also need to persuade voters the GOP is the party that cares about the cost of living problems voters face.
