As the government shutdown nears its end, Republicans are regaining the upper hand and Democrats are in disarray. No one should get comfortable, however, because when the government reopens, the GOP will face its next challenge: addressing healthcare. Similar to the Obamacare fights of 2009-2010, and 2017-2018, Republicans must make certain their message is clear, consistent, and cutting through the noise to the voters they need to persuade, both their base and swing voters.
By The Numbers:
The 2025 government shutdown fight was largely over extending the 2021 Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits. Prior to the shutdown, polls showed most Americans (78%) said Congress should extend the tax credits, including 59% of Republicans and 57% of “MAGA supporters.”
About one month into the shutdown, however, the MAGA base began shifting away from extending credits. Now, only 44% of “MAGA supporters” believe the credits should be extended, a 13-point shift. Republican support dropped from 59% to 50%. While messaging about the credits penetrated these groups, that message has not reached a broader audience, which still supports their extension.
The Bottom Line: Last Tuesday’s election results confirmed one universal truth: the cost of living is the most important issue moving voters to turn out and vote in a non-presidential year. It is extremely important for 2026 GOP campaigns to learn from the mistakes of 2025 and recognize healthcare is part of that cost-of-living equation, not an abstract issue settled by past litigation. Republicans must speak in real, human terms and make the case that they have better solutions for truly affordable and accessible care.
