With all eyes on the presidential election, the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is somewhat under the radar. Republicans hold a slight majority–220 to 212–with three vacant seats now. Democrats have to net only six seats to gain control. How likely is that? Considering the vast majority of House districts are won by the party that already holds them, it may not be as easy as Democrats hope.
By The Numbers:
In 302 of the 390 districts Pew Research analyzed from 1922 to 1932 period, (77%) were consistently represented by either Republicans or Democrats, and another 58 (15%) were predominantly represented by either Republicans or Democrats. Just 8% were “mixed party” districts where no single party dominated.
Between 1932 and 1942, there were 71 mixed-party districts, accounting for 21% of the 342 districts we analyzed. This was the only time from 1922-2022 where more than a fifth of the districts studied were mixed party.
Only 8% of districts between 1980-1990 were mixed. Between 2010-2022, the parties were evenly divided, with Republicans consistently controlling 151 districts and Democrats consistently controlling 160. Only 28 districts were mixed.
The Bottom Line: About 30 seats this year are extremely competitive, continuing the trend seen the last few decades. Of the 30, control of the House will come down for five or six seats. Many are in presidential battleground like Pennsylvania. Others–mostly Republican–are in New York or California. The top of the ticket could help pull some congressional candidates over the line, to not just win the White House, but also control of the U.S. House.
