A new NBC News poll finds over half of 2024 Election voters plan to cast their vote early this year, more than compared to previous elections. Of those, there is a distinct partisan divide.
By The Numbers:
In Oct. 2022, 49% said they would vote early, compared to 47% who said they’d vote on Election Day. In Oct. 2020, 59% said they’d vote early compared to 37% who said they’d vote on Election Day. Those early vote numbers are higher, given the increased mail-in vote during the COVID-19 pandemic. Before COVID in Nov. 2016, only 41% said they’d vote early, compared to 32% who said they’d turnout on Election Day.
Today 52% of voters say they voted early or plan to vote early, while 44% of voters say they’ll vote on Election Day. That’s a three-point increase in early voting from 2022, and eleven-point increase from 2016.
Of those planning to vote early or having already voted this year, 40% are Republican and 57% are Democrat. Of those voting early by mail, 32% are Republican, 66% Democrat. Of those voting early in person, 47% are Republican, 51% Democrat. Republicans still hold the Election Day advantage (58%), compared to 37% of Democrats who’ll vote Election Day.
The Bottom Line: Election Day is no longer one day in November, and GOTV is at least a month-long process, not just a week or two. Campaigns now bank supporter votes early by helping those voters get to an early polling location or return their mail ballot, while also continuing to reach out and persuade moveable voters. Both parties must pay attention to both groups as they’ll decide this razor-thin election.
