Americans aren’t excited about another Biden-Trump contest, according to a recent Monmouth University poll. Only 37% of voters say they have at least some enthusiasm about the possibility of former President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee, while only 32% say they’re enthusiastic about President Joe Biden being the Democrats’ nominee.
Why It Matters: The former and current presidents are leading their party’s nomination contests. However, voters are less than excited about the potential match-up. This could affect turn out and down-ballot races should both Trump and Biden be the nominees. Still, political partisan say they’re excited about their potential party leaders, so it may be swing voters and those less likely to turn out, like the young, Blacks and Hispanics whose turnout is affected.
By The Numbers:
The Bottom Line: A majority of Republicans and Democrats are enthusiastic about the current front-runners, however, not at the levels we saw when both men were in their prime. While this might not affect the primary elections, the lack of enthusiasm among general election voters could become a major factor in some states with open primaries and then again the general election. This could interrupt the trend since 1996 (with a brief respite in 2012) of increasing presidential election year turnout. Which party is hurt and which party benefits (or isn’t hurt as much as the other) could well determine the outcome in Nov. 2024.
