At this point in the 2018 Midterm Election cycle, there were plenty of signs that Republicans were marching into a debacle. The 2026 Midterm Elections do not have those same warning signs, as pointed out by NBC News’ Steve Kornacki, and Republicans likely have Democrats to thank for it.
By The Numbers:
At this point in 2017, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.8 points in the RealClearPolitics.com aggregate. Today, Democrats only hold a three-point lead in the RealClearPolitics.com aggregate.
This rosier-than-expected picture for the GOP is largely driven by the Democratic Party’s nosedive in their own public approval rating. Not only are Democrats seeing their lowest approval rating in the three decades, but they’re seeing large unrest within their own party. Only 35% of Americans approval of the Democratic Party. At this point in 2017, that number was 39%.
The Bottom Line: In the 2018 Midterm Elections, President Donald Trump’s approval rating, the Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot, and fights over the Affordable Care Act helped Democrats gain 40 seats. While Republicans are now benefitting from unrest and infighting within the Democratic Party, the shutdown debate should serve as a cautionary tale that Republicans could help unify their opposition if they aren’t unified and on message about the stalemate.
