Polling News

Swing Groups in Iowa

January 18, 2024

According to CNN Iowa caucus entrance polls, Donald Trump won demographics many observers said he’d have trouble with for the caucus and the general election.

By the Numbers:

  • Donald Trump won 53% of white born-again evangelical Christians, 47% of urban voters, 47% of suburban voters, 57% of rural voters, and 36% of college educated white voters, the most of any candidate. He dominated white voters without a college degree, as he’s done in past elections. 

  • Ron DeSantis came the closest with evangelicals (27%), suburban voters (27%), rural voters (19%) and those without a college degree (16%). Nikki Haley came the closest with urban voters (27%) and white voters with a college degree (29%). 

The Bottom Line: While Trump over-performed with demographics many predicted would break for his opponents, those voters showed up for him in snowy Iowa Monday night. DeSantis made a play for evangelicals and Haley suburban voters, but it didn’t work out for either. That said, it’d be a mistake to read Monday’s results as a reason to relax for the fall election. Just over 110,000 Iowans attended Monday’s caucus, less than in 2016, 2012, and 2008. Trump should work to bring Republicans together by keeping the unifying tone of his speech Monday night if he wants to replicate these results in future primaries and the November election. 

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