While a few primaries are still ahead, each party’s fall lineup is coming into focus. Republicans should have four things going for them, Democrats five.
The first Republican advantage is the political map. The 35 Senate seats up this year (including two special elections) are mostly in Southern, Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states where Democrats are weak. To hold their majority Republicans must defend incumbents in Maine, Ohio and Alaska and hold on to open seats in North Carolina, Texas and Iowa. The likelihood of Democrats grabbing the four seats they need to take control of the Senate is slim, especially with GOP pickup opportunities in Michigan and New Hampshire.
Second, mid-decade redistricting. Republicans hold a slender 218-212 majority, with one independent and four vacancies. But in late June, the Cook Political Report projected that Democrats will need to win more than a dozen toss-up seats to take even a one-seat majority. According to Cook, 181 seats are solidly Democratic, while another 23 are likely Democratic or lean that way. One hundred eighty-six are solidly Republican, while 26 are likely or lean GOP. That leaves 18 toss-ups, at least 14 of which Democrats have to win to take the House. Democrats could well flip the House, but this won’t be 2018, when Democrats gained 41 House seats, much less the reverse of the 63-seat Republican gain in 2010.
Money is the third GOP advantage. Republican groups have lots more than the Democrats do. The GOP’s Senate super PAC has $238 million in cash on hand, its Democratic counterpart $126 million. As of the end of March, the Republican National Committee had $116 million on hand, while the Democratic National Committee had $13.8 million—and $18 million in debt. The big question: Will President Trump spend his MAGA super PAC’s $350 million or hold it for his library?
Fourth, the public’s low opinion of the Democratic Party. In the RealClearPolitics average, the party gets only a 38.1% favorable rating, lower than the GOP’s 39.3% or Mr. Trump’s 41.1%. The Democrats’ proclivity for extreme leftism—a June Pew poll found that one-third of Democrats like politicians who “identify as democratic socialists”—could make things harder for the party in battleground races.
Republicans’ fifth advantage should be messaging, since they have the White House, the largest political megaphone. But this president is notoriously undisciplined. Witness this week’s quick come-and-gone 20% Strait of Hormuz cargo-protection fee and reports that he will make Thursday’s national address a rant on the 2020 election.
The first of the Democrats’ five advantages is that it’s a midterm. The party that doesn’t hold the White House has made gains in all but three midterms since 1900. Very popular presidents kept the out-party from gaining seats in 1934, 1998 and 2002.
The second is Mr. Trump’s dismal 56.1% disapproval rating, putting him upside down by 15 points. This is a consistent problem for him—his popularity has been declining since May 2025.
Third, Mr. Trump’s approval rating is particularly low on the economy, at 36.4%. The economy is almost always voters’ No. 1 issue.
Fourth, the generic ballot favors Democrats, with 48.1% in the RCP average to 43.1% for Republicans. This is a lower advantage, by a couple of points, than what Democrats had in May, but it’s still sufficient to carry the day.
Fifth is the enthusiasm gap. Virtually every poll shows Democrats more fired up than Republicans. GOP voters tend to be older, and thus more likely to turn out even when unenthusiastic. But enthusiasm will help the Democrats.
