America’s military completed its mission in Operation Epic Fury. But what about public opinion now that the bombs aren’t falling? Could President Trump be disappointing supporters by trying to appease domestic critics in the negotiations with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders?
A good way to start answering is by looking at Americans’ expectations about the Iranian conflict.
We get a sense from a Reagan Institute survey that concluded June 3. The full poll won’t be distributed until Monday, but the results of one question have been released. Respondents were asked: “Which of the following outcomes would you most prefer to see in Iran?” There were three options: “regime change: Iran’s current government is replaced with one more favorable to the U.S.,” “a weakened regime: Iran’s current government remains but is significantly diminished militarily and economically,” and “a negotiated settlement: Iran’s current government remains in exchange for verifiable limits on its nuclear and missile programs.”
Fifty-two percent favor either regime change (36%) or a weakened regime (16%). Thirty-nine percent favor a negotiated settlement. The remaining 8% don’t know.
But Democrats favor a negotiated settlement (52%) over regime change or weakening (39%). The numbers are reversed for Republicans, 25% for negotiated settlement to 69% for regime change or weakening. The numbers are little different for MAGA Republicans, 25% to 70%. Independents favor regime change or weakening (71%) over settlement (17%).
Maybe it won’t matter to his base that Mr. Trump didn’t achieve regime change and instead embraced negotiations. But it could reduce their enthusiasm. Republicans, especially MAGA Republicans, see Mr. Trump as a strong leader. Getting outplayed at the negotiating tables by America’s sworn enemy is sure to undermine that.
Team Trump is especially vulnerable for offering enormous concessions upfront. They relaxed sanctions and allowed immediate Iranian oil sales, then said questions about inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities, removal of nuclear materials and the status of the Strait of Hormuz will be settled by mid-August. That’s just before the fall election season starts. Iranians aren’t stupid. They know the president worries about the midterms. They’ll exploit that. Tehran also thinks the U.S. won’t restart the conflict over inspections.
The president has made even more concessions when speaking off the cuff. He condoned the Iranians having ballistic missiles: “It’s a little bit unfair for them not to have some.” That’s an astonishing thing to say. The Iranian regime wants to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles that can hit America.
Mr. Trump also turned a blind eye to Iran’s support for terror groups, especially in Lebanon. President Joseph Aoun wants to disarm and dissolve Hezbollah, which Iran arms to menace Israel’s northern border. Vice President JD Vance berated Israel for trying to remove that threat.
Two other points should worry Mr. Trump’s image managers. The proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund is effectively reimbursing Iran for the damage our bombs and sanctions caused. And offering to draw down America’s regional presence looks as if the U.S is turning tail and running. This all appears even weaker than Barack Obama’s 2015 deal with Iran.
How does all this dizzying action make the Trump administration look? A June 19 CBS News Poll found 66% of Americans “think the Trump Administration has reached an agreement with Iran mainly because it wants the conflict to be over” while only 34% said it’s because “the U.S. has met all its goals.” Seventy-two percent of Democrats, 71% of independents and 53% of Republicans agreed with that statement. Only 47% of Republicans felt that U.S. goals have been met.
