The primaries Tuesday in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico provide insight into how the midterms are shaping up.
It’ll be the Brit vs. the Bland in California, as English immigrant Republican Steve Hilton leads the state’s jungle primary for governor with around 28% of the vote. He’ll face off against the uninteresting demeanor of former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who is taking 25%.
In deep-blue districts, it was a split decision. The more left-wing Democratic candidate, Adam Hamawy, won in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District with 28%. But in the race to replace Rep. Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th District, two more-moderate Democrats, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, will head into the fall election.
Democrats got the better Senate candidate in Iowa, moving that race from likely Republican to lean Republican. Meanwhile, President Trump got a rare intraparty rebuke in the Hawkeye State, as his endorsed candidate lost the GOP gubernatorial primary. Montana voters rejected the Democratic strategy of running independents in red states, turning out in bigger numbers than in the last midterm to unite behind a Democrat rather than an independent. That creates a three-way Senate race, giving the GOP an edge.
Most big questions about November remain unanswered. Will Mr. Trump’s low approval rating—now 40% in the RealClearPolitics average—hurt Republicans more than the Democratic Party’s even lower approval numbers—36.7%—and limit their gains?
Will we still be dealing with the Iran war by Labor Day? Will the result be seen as a defeat for Mr. Trump? Will gasoline and grocery prices be lower this fall? If they are, will voters’ anger have dissipated?
How much will farm-state contests like Senate and gubernatorial races in Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska be affected by farmers’ now paying up to $5.82 a gallon for the diesel needed for planting? Will fertilizer prices have come down by harvest?
Will Democrats finally settle on an effective economic message? If they don’t, will vague promises to do something about fuel, grocery, healthcare and housing costs be enough to encourage voters to punish Mr. Trump?
Will the national image of socialists like Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dominate and damage more-traditional Democratic candidates?
Did efforts to create more safe Republican seats through middecade redistricting also result in more toss-up districts or Republican-leaning seats vulnerable to a Democratic wave?
Was the big Democratic turnout in special elections and primaries a preview of a significant enthusiasm advantage this fall? Or will it be matched by an energized Republican electorate that isn’t motivated yet?
How much will Mr. Trump’s obsessive efforts to cement a personal legacy—the White House ballroom, a triumphal arch, his name on the Kennedy Center—hurt Republicans?
How inflammatory will the president’s Truth Social posts be?
Will the allegations of corruption in the Trump administration become an effective campaign issue for Democrats this fall?
Can each party’s troubled nominees mount better defenses than Maine Democrat Graham Platner or Texas Republican Ken Paxton have? How many other campaigns will be hit with such revelations?
Will the nation’s 250th anniversary bring Americans together? Or will July Fourth celebrations from the White House be seen as Mr. Trump trying to draw attention to himself?
Will the administration’s focus on fraud in federal and state spending convince voters Republicans are making progress? Or will inadequate results or voter cynicism make it a nothing-burger?
