Say what you will, President Trump’s endorsement is still mighty powerful in primaries. Last week, seven days before Tuesday’s Senate runoff in Texas, Mr. Trump endorsed the scandal-plagued state attorney general, Ken Paxton, over Sen. John Cornyn.
While endorsing Mr. Paxton, the president called Mr. Cornyn “a good man” with whom he’d “worked well.” But he also complained that the Texas senator was “very late in backing” him for president in 2024. With the president’s “Complete and Total Endorsement,” Mr. Paxton walloped the senator Tuesday, 64% to 36%. I say that in sorrow. Mr. Cornyn is a close friend, and I volunteered to raise money for his political action committee.
Mr. Paxton might have lost without the president’s backing. Before the endorsement, tracking polls showed that of the 81% of primary voters who had read, seen or heard about him, 35% said they would be more likely to vote for him while 49% would be less likely. After the endorsement, those concerns lifted.
Still, every important action in politics can cause adverse consequences. There are potentially at least five from Mr. Trump’s endorsement and Mr. Paxton’s win.
First, the Texas GOP ticket will be led by a candidate who ran behind the rest of the statewide Republican ticket in his last two campaigns. He trailed all seven statewide GOP candidates in 2018 by an average of about 177,000 votes and all six in 2022 by an average of 154,000.
That was all before most of the scandals surrounding Mr. Paxton became public and before the Republican-run Texas House impeached him in 2023. (The Senate narrowly acquitted him.) Mr. Paxton could prove a drag on the ticket this time.
Second, while Mr. Paxton will hammer the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, for crazy comments—“There are many more than two biological sexes—in fact, there are six”; “it is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption”—Republicans will also be forced to play defense. Democrats will have a lot to go on the offensive with, trashing Mr. Paxton over allegations of corruption, bribery, obstruction, securities fraud, multiple mistresses and incompetent handling of sex-trafficking cases. Mr. Paxton denies all these allegations, but a Texas court last year ordered his office to pay $6.6 million for violating the Texas Whistleblower Act.
Mr. Paxton won’t be the only one who must deal with these accusations. Every Texas Republican running for Congress, statewide office or the Texas Legislature could be asked about his scandals.
Third, more Texas Republicans will be at risk of losing close contests. Democratic turnout will be energized, while Mr. Paxton’s ethics challenges will probably depress the GOP’s. Consider 2018, when Sen. Ted Cruz barely held off Democrat Robert Francis O’Rourke. Then, Texas Republicans lost two seats in the U.S. House and a dozen in the state House. It could be worse this year.
Fourth, the Texas contest will suck money from other crucial races around the country. Mr. Paxton is a terrible fundraiser, bringing in only $7.6 million by May 6 while Mr. Talarico raised $40.3 million through March. Because of the opportunity Mr. Paxton’s controversial record presents, Democrats might decide Texas is a good place to devote serious money—think several hundred million. Watch for a June TV blitz. If they do launch one, Mr. Trump’s PAC must counter it since Mr. Paxton won’t be able.
Fifth, since Mr. Cornyn voted for the Trump agenda 99% of the time but was still rejected by the president, some congressional Republicans could reconsider their relationship with Mr. Trump. Many will make their public tributes to the president more frequent and effusive, hoping to avoid Mr. Cornyn’s fate. But others may decide loyalty to Mr. Trump is a one-way street and act accordingly. Some Senate Republicans have already begun to distance themselves, opposing Mr. Trump’s $220 million ballroom request and nearly $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund.
