Campaigns for the White House are often settled by how voters answer three questions: Who’s the stronger leader? Is the election a referendum on the incumbent or a choice between the contenders’ values and views? Who offers a more appealing vision for the future?
The answer to the first question has been known since this contest began. Polls have long shown Americans believe Donald Trump is in better physical and mental shape to handle the next four years than Joe Biden.
For many voters still up for grabs, any doubts were likely settled on a stage in Butler, Pa., Saturday evening. There Mr. Trump, his ear bleeding after being hit by a bullet in an attempted assassination, got to his feet in a scrum of Secret Service agents and thrust his fist in the air. The crowd roared and began chanting “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!” Mr. Trump’s iconic gesture of defiance and reassurance showed his strength far more definitively than any speech, television ad or social-media posting could.
The Republican National Convention has focused its first three days on framing the election as a referendum on the incumbent and his record. That wasn’t hard, given that voters already had more positive perceptions of the economy and border security under Mr. Trump than under Mr. Biden.
Wednesday night’s speech by Mr. Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, hasn’t taken place yet at time of writing. But it’s safe to predict it won’t make a crucial difference. It may help highlight Mr. Biden’s failings, but people vote for the top man, not No. 2. Parking Mr. Vance in the Great Lakes states is useful. But in 2022 he was elected to the Senate by 6 points while the rest of the Ohio GOP statewide ticket won by 17 to 25 points. This suggests that his appeal to swing voters needs work.
Still, Team Trump got what it wanted with Mr. Vance—youth (he’s half Mr. Trump’s age), an articulate and ferocious attack dog (courtesy of Yale Law) and philosophical compatibility (a MAGA convert).
Mr. Trump’s Thursday night acceptance speech will be the convention’s most important moment. He told the Washington Examiner that he had planned to deliver a “hum-dinger” with a full-throated attack on Mr. Biden. After Saturday’s shooting, he said, he rewrote his speech: “This is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together.”
Mr. Trump’s instinct to pivot to unity and optimistic vision is right. He can attack the Biden record but need not go into much detail: He’ll be pushing on an open door. Undecided or soft Trump voters know the country’s challenges. They want to hear his answers to them and how he’ll work on behalf of all Americans.
Focusing on grievances about the 2020 election or mistreatment by prosecutors will cost him the opportunity to convert many fence sitters. A softer—one might even say presidential—tone would do him good. If Mr. Trump makes his case that way Thursday night, he’ll leave Milwaukee on a rocket.
On Monday night, Mr. Trump silently entered the RNC, his face unusually emotional, even subdued. The gravity of being targeted for assassination clearly affected him. There are reports he’s feeling enormous gratitude for being alive. He should express that.
A good night for Mr. Trump Thursday will make it all the harder for Mr. Biden to shift the election from a referendum to a choice—an effort already hampered by his disastrous debate performance. It confirmed the deep concerns many Americans already had about his physical and mental fitness.
