Political battles are already under way that will have serious consequences for the 2028 presidential election’s outcome.
I’m not talking about anything coming from the platoon of potential Democratic White House candidates. How each of them conducts himself during the next year will help decide their ultimate fate, but there are more important events now shaping the contours of the 2028 presidential campaign.
The outcome of key primaries this year will show the mindset of Democratic voters—a loud signal to those in the party eyeing the White House. Do Democratic voters want candidates to attack President Donald Trump constantly while offering hard-left agendas? Or do they prefer more-centrist figures with agendas that unite their party, attract independents and maybe even win over a few Republicans? Whichever path the party picks with its nominees this cycle in crucial contests will undoubtedly influence the tone and platforms of 2028 presidential hopefuls.
Three high profile Democratic primaries stand out as tone setters. On March 3, the Senate primary in Texas was a victory for the party’s normie wing. The winner, James Talarico, has some very strange beliefs. (“It is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption.”) But having won an open state House seat previously held by a Republican in his first political race in 2018, he understands that any Democrat who wants to win Texas must corral independents and Republicans. His primary opponent this year, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, campaigned hard left, believing that there is a progressive majority in Texas that fails to materialize in results only because too many lefties don’t turn out at the polls. She would have been a pushover for Republicans.
The next high-profile Democratic primary contests are coming this summer. The first is the June 9 Maine Senate primary between leftist oysterman Graham Platner and the state’s two-term governor, Janet Mills.
Ms. Mills is attacking Mr. Platner over his social-media posts playing down rape. He also called police “bastards,” disparaged gays and previously had a tattoo of what many believe is a Nazi emblem. Still, he leads in the polls and has the energy and the activists. Ms. Mills has establishment backing: She was recruited by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Mr. Platner calls Mr. Schumer a failure and says he should step down.
The next headliner primary is an Aug. 4 race in Michigan. Three Democrats are running for their party’s nod for the Senate seat left open by Democrat Gary Peters’s retirement. Rep. Haley Stevens is the establishment candidate, a moderate who flipped a GOP House seat in 2018. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow is further to the left, more combative and energetic. Abdul El-Sayed is the most left-wing of the trio.
If Mr. Platner in Maine and either Ms. McMorrow or Mr. El-Sayed in Michigan prevail, that will push potential Democratic presidential candidates left, hurting the party’s chances in November, when appealing to the partisan base isn’t enough.
If Ms. Mills in Maine and Ms. Stevens in Michigan join Mr. Talarico as the Democratic nominees, it will signal that Democratic voters want candidates who appeal beyond the left-wing base. As early vote signals, these Senate primaries will have an outsize effect that could be amplified by results in other contests for the Democratic nomination for Congress and state and local offices.
A Democratic move to the left would be a blessing for Republicans. It’s true that very liberal candidates can win in purple or even reddish districts if the anti-Trump sentiment generates a big enough turnout. But Democrats would be making a mistake if they think that moving left in 2026 is the best path to victory in 2028.
