Most Americans aren’t thinking about next year’s midterm election. But leaders, lawmakers and candidates in both parties are—and for good reason.
The most consequential battle across the contested arenas in 2026—the Senate, the House, governorships and state legislatures—will likely be the fight for the House. It’s the most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat, putting a major crimp in President Trump’s final two years.
The House is narrowly divided. There are 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies, all previously held by Democrats.
This has made every bill a potential nail-biter. The House passed a budget reconciliation act—the “big, beautiful bill”—two weeks ago by a vote of 215-214 with one member “present” and two not voting. If Rep. Gerald Connollyhadn’t died the day before, the vote might have been 215-215 and the legislation defeated.
Even with Democrats on their heels, Republicans are looking at a tough scrap. Typically, midterm House contests are hostile to the president’s party. Since World War II, the party in power has lost an average of 25 seats in the midterms. The biggest loss was 63 for Democrats in 2010 under President Barack Obama; the smallest was four under President John F. Kennedy in 1962.
The exceptions were 1998, when Democrats picked up five seats, and 2002, when Republicans added eight. These were special circumstances. In the first instance, the GOP overplayed its hand by moving to impeach President Bill Clinton. In the second, it took a 63% approval rating for President George W. Bush a year after 9/11. Even then, it wasn’t easy. Trust me—I was in the White House.
This coming election will have few competitive seats. Each party gerrymandered where it could when it controlled a state’s legislature and governorship during redistricting after the 2020 census. This suggests the elections will come down to brutal, expensive campaigns in a handful of districts.
The Cook Political Report rates 191 seats as “solid” Republican, 11 as “likely” Republican and 9 as “lean” Republican, for a total of 211. That’s nine less than the GOP’s number today. A majority is 218.
By comparison, the Cook Political Report rates 175 seats as “solid” Democratic, 19 as “likely” Democratic and 12 as “lean” Democratic, for a total of 206. That’s six fewer than they have today—nine if you include the three vacant seats.
That leaves 19 “toss up” seats. Ten are held by Democrats and nine by Republicans. If Republicans hold all their other seats, they must win seven of these to reach the magic 218 majority. Democrats, if they held all their other seats, must win 12.
Democrats will focus on the three Republican congressmen who won even though Kamala Harris carried their districts—Reps. Don Bacon (Nebraska’s Second District), Mike Lawler (New York’s 17th) and Brian Fitzpatrick(Pennsylvania’s First). If the Democrats can pick up these three seats and block any Republican flips, that will get them to 219. The Republicans’ problem is turning out Trump supporters, who may not care about the election if he isn’t on the ballot.
Though Democrats have history on their side, they still have to overcome vicious intra-party strife and recriminations to nominate candidates who can capture the center while still motivating the left.
