We’re close to the day of reckoning for Republicans and Democrats. So it’s time for prognosticators, observers, gadflies and political junkies to share their predictions. I’ll start.
Democrats will take the House. But they’re unlikely to flip as many seats as they did in 2018 (41), never mind as Republicans did in 2010 (63). Democratic pickups are likely to be in the 20 to 25 range. If it’s a really good night, they could win as many as 31 seats, as they did in 2006.
The main reason Republican losses will be contained is both parties have gerrymandered states they control. But partisan gerrymandering has its limits. Maximizing a party’s number of districts means spreading its voters more thinly, increasing the likelihood that a district will be competitive in a bad year. Democrats did a better job of this, and it is a bad year for Republicans. That’s why this year Democrats are all but assured of gaining five seats in California, while Texas Republicans will be lucky to get three of the five they expected redistricting to yield.
An early indication of how well Democrats will do nationally could come when Virginia’s polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern Time. The commonwealth reports quickly, and its district lines are unchanged. Democrats have long targeted Reps. Rob Wittman in the First District and Jen Kiggans in the Second. The former won re-election in 2024 by 12.8% of the vote, the latter by 3.8%. Democrats have also targeted Rep. John McGuire, who won the Fifth District by 14.9%. The difference between their performance two years ago and this year could signal how much of a swing Democrats have nationally.
Florida Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map hoping to flip the Ninth, 14th, 22nd and 25th districts. If Republicans lead in those districts after 7 p.m., GOP hopes for Sunshine State gains may be realized.
At 7:30 p.m., polls close in Ohio. Consider how Republican incumbents Max Miller in the Seventh District and Mike Turner in the 10th and Democrat Marcy Kaptur in the Ninth are doing in individual counties, compared with two years ago.
The next big wave of poll closings comes at 8 p.m. Watch Pennsylvania, with vulnerable Republicans in the First, Seventh, Eighth and 10th districts. If an incumbent runs several points behind his 2024 pace in county after county, no late batch of votes will likely save him.
As for the Senate, it’s too close to call and much can happen before Tuesday. If forced to choose, I say Republicans keep control with a 50-50 tie, which would give the GOP a majority with Vice President JD Vance the tie-breaker.
