In every election, a moment comes when things lock in. There’s money for only one more set of messages. Only enough volunteers to get out only so many voters. No time to try something new. With less than four weeks to go, many campaigns are likely at that point.
So what are they talking about? Every candidate is attacking his opponent. But what about each party’s ads boosting its candidates and saying what they would do?
The Wesleyan Media Project tracks the ads of Senate and House candidates. Their recent report covers television, cable and digital spots from Sept. 8 through 27. Each party’s Senate and House advertising strategies are similar, so let’s look at the Senate, where the big money is.
The Wesleyan study finds that 36% of pro-Democratic Senate ads mention business (not in a positive light), 35.7% the cost of living, 33.8% healthcare, 29.1% ethics and scandals, and 25.3% energy (both prices and climate). Since a single ad may mention several topics, these numbers add up to more than 100%.
Democrats clearly remember James Carville’s 1992 mantra, “It’s the economy, stupid and don’t forget healthcare.” They hope President Trump’s poor ratings on inflation give them the win on economic issues generally, despite a strong stock market, stable job numbers and healthy growth.
By contrast, 46.1% of pro-Republican Senate ads mention taxes, 19.9% the cost of living, 18.1% transgenderism, 15.1% immigration and 14.4% crime. The GOP clearly devotes less attention to the economy and more to cultural issues. But immigration and crime may be yesterday’s news, especially since the border is closed and crime is down. Voters tend to pocket success and focus on what’s bothering them. Concentrating on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act also risks seeming complacent. Republicans look as if they’re running on what they’ve done more than on what they’ll do next.
What’s the money situation? Here the GOP edge is undeniable. Republicans have lots more. California data scientist Rob Pyers estimates Republicans have spent $642.9 million on ads for Senate candidates and $165.6 million for House candidates. Democrats have spent $235.2 million on Senate hopefuls and $125.8 million on the House. Does spending the most money guarantee victory? Ask President Mike Bloomberg.
Moreover, the president’s political-action committee might have waited too long to release its enormous load of cash. Many undecided and swing voters could have decided before Labor Day, making movement difficult in September and October. Some always wait until closer to the election. But will there be enough for Republicans to cut their losses? Only time will tell.
What about the polls? Republicans believe they are biased in favor of Democrats. One of the best GOP polling minds, Patrick Ruffini, examined this question, studying 3,312 polls from the last four elections. He found 73% of these overstated Democratic performance compared with the actual results.
That Democratic overperformance peaked in July at 5.9 points. The numbers generally started declining in late August. By Election Day, polls were on average 2.6 points more Democratic than the results.
