Republicans will get their first major electoral report card on President Trump’s new term next Tuesday. Ten weeks in to his second stint in the Oval Office, voters in Florida and Wisconsin will head to the polls for important elections. In the Sunshine State, they’ll fill two U.S. House vacancies; in the Badger State, a state Supreme Court seat.
Republicans should win both House races easily—though things look more competitive than they should be. Florida’s First District consists of the Panhandle’s four westernmost counties. Last November, Mr. Trump carried it over Vice President Kamala Harris 68% to 31%. And incumbent GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz rolled to a 66% to 34% victory over Democrat Gay Valimont. Mr. Gaetz then resigned in January, killing the release of a highly anticipated House Ethics Committee report on his alleged sordid shenanigans.
Ms. Valimont, a healthcare professional and gun-control activist, is running again. Republicans nominated Florida’s chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronis.
While the First District is rock-ribbed Republican and Mr. Patronis had raised a respectable $2.1 million by mid-March, Ms. Valimont raked in $6.7 million with more than 200,000 contributions. She’s using her financial edge to hammer Mr. Patronis over cuts to the Department of Veterans Affairs proposed by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. This is a sensitive issue in a district with more than 89,000 veterans and an economy heavily dependent on the military.
Democratic enthusiasm appears high. As of March 20, 46% of the mail-in ballots had been cast by registered Republicans, 41% by Democrats, and 12% by unaffiliated and minor party registrants. While a 5-point GOP advantage is better than a stick in the eye, Republicans want to do significantly better in a district that voted more than 2 to 1 for Mr. Trump last fall.
It’s a similar tale in Florida’s Sixth District, on that state’s eastern Palm Coast, anchored by Daytona Beach. Mr. Trump carried it 65% to 35% last fall while Rep. Michael Waltz took 67% before resigning in January to become the new president’s national security adviser.
The president endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine for the GOP nomination. He now faces Democrat Josh Weil, a schoolteacher and progressive activist. Like Ms. Valimont, Mr. Weil has raised much more than his opponent, pulling in $9.1 million to Mr. Fine’s $983,000. After using his financial advantage to pummel the Republican hopeful, Mr. Weil entered the final stretch with $1.3 million cash on hand to Mr. Fine’s $93,000. But money may not be decisive here. As in the First District, there are many more registered Republicans than Democrats.
Still, the Democratic money edge and early-vote numbers have rattled the GOP, leading a county Republican chairman in the First District to say, “If we don’t win decisively, then we have failed.” That’s an overstatement. A win is a win. But the margin does matter.
A close election would show Democratic enthusiasm can generate higher turnout and lots more money. Both could prove decisive in next year’s midterms in districts and states more closely balanced between Democrats and Republicans than two deep-red districts in a red state.
Wisconsin’s election Tuesday for an open state Supreme Court seat is officially nonpartisan. But Democrats endorsed Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford while Republicans backed Waukesha County Circuit Court Judge Brad Schimel. Judge Crawford was legal counsel for former Democratic Gov. James Doyle. Judge Schimel is a former Republican attorney general and was Waukesha County district attorney. Mr. Trump endorsed him Sunday.
