Polling News

A July NYT/Siena College poll found that more voters wanted to vote against Trump and for him. A new CBS News poll out this week finds this number has grown, especially in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Why It Matters: The former president has set very high expectations, routinely highlighting his “massive” lead in the polls and claiming to have 60% of the electorate. These polls show not only is that incorrect, but that his number continues declining as more and more Republican say they’re open to other candidates. 

By The Numbers:

• In July 37% of Republicans said they were MAGA base voters; 37% said they liked the former president, but were persuadable and considering other voters; and 25% said they would not vote for Trump at all. That’s a combined 62% non-Trump vote.
• Today, in Iowa those numbers are 20%, 48%, 31%, respectively. In New Hampshire, those numbers are 23%, 43%, and 34%, respectively. 
   

The Bottom Line: It’s clear the former president has both a high floor and potentially a low ceiling, one that continues to lower as the race goes on. As he has now skipped two debates, we see Republicans becoming more open to considering other candidates. There are more voters who want to vote for someone else rather than for the former president. Whichever Republican candidate can win over that bulk of the persuadable is likely to succeed.