The last two weeks have seen a flurry of polls that should make every Republican candidate nervous about the Midterm Election. The generic ballot ranged from Democrats +2 to Democrats +11, leaving the aggregate advantage for Democrats around five points. Last week’s Fox News poll had especially harrowing news. It showed Democrats not only with a generic ballot edge, but also leading on key issues and voter enthusiasm.
By The Numbers:
Democrats are at 53% to Republicans 46% in the Fox News poll generic ballot, a six-point D advantage. Earlier this year, Democrats were 52% to Republicans 46% or 47%. At this point in 2022, Democrats were at 41% to Republicans 44%. At this point in 2018, Democrats were 48% to Republicans 40%.
Fifty-nine percent of all voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in November. However, only 57% of Republicans and 41% of Independents say they are extremely motivated, compared to 68% of Democrats who say the same, giving Democrats an eleven-point advantage.
The Bottom Line: The Fox News poll also found voters are trust Democrats more on income equality (60–38%), healthcare (60–39%), inflation (54–44%), the economy (54–45%), foreign policy (53–46%), government spending (51–48%), and immigration (50–49%). Republicans have maintained an edge only on national security (50–48%) and crime (53–46%). Republicans must regain the upper hand on immigration, the economy, and inflation while closing the gap on healthcare and foreign policy. They can do so by acknowledging that voters are still hurting and by highlighting what Republicans have done – and will do – to address those concerns. They have 96 days to make their case.
