Throughout this campaign, each candidate has seen a bump in the polls after an inflection point or major event: conventions, attempted assassination, indictments, and economic numbers to name just a few. However, as The New York Times points out, these bumps may be fleeting. This isn’t a new phenomenon. With a race this close, any small changes could mean a massively different election outcome with two massively different landslides.
By The Numbers:
Polling averages as of Sept. 16 (shown above) have Harris ahead nationally and in Wisconsin. Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina; tied in Arizona; and Trump ahead in Georgia.
If polls have the same errors this year that they did in the 2022 Election cycle, Harris will win by Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona by bigger margins than the current average. Trump would win only Georgia.
However, if polls have the same errors this year that they did in the 2020 Election Cycle, Trump will win all seven battleground states.
The Bottom Line: If polls have the same errors as 2022, Harris sweeps. If polls have the same errors as 2020, Trump wins big. One thing is for sure, neither campaign should put too much faith in the horse race as shown in public polling. Instead, they should trust their data, messaging, and ground campaigns.
