Emerson’s April 2026 Generic Ballot gave Democrats a ten-point advantage. This is the highest Democrats have seen this cycle in Emerson’s polling. This is one of the worst Generic Ballot tests for Republicans, as the most recent movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That said, the aggregate is not nearly as good as Democrats have seen in the past.
By The Numbers:
The RealClearPolitics.com aggregate of all polling paints a slightly better picture for Republicans, with Democrats only at a 5.3-point lead on the Generic Ballot. On this day last year, Democrats only led by two points.
Looking back at past RealClearPolitics.com averages, Democrats had a 1.2-point advantage on this day in 2024. On this day in 2022, Republicans had a 4.7-point advantage. On this day in 2020, Democrats had a 7.4-point advantage. On this day in 2018, Democrats had a 6.8-point advantage and in 2014 Democrats +0.4-point lead.
The Bottom Line: Democrats are doing worse on the Generic Ballot now than they were at this point in 2018, when Democrats won over 40 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The lag for Democrats today is a sign that they still have a brand problem and opposing Trump will not be enough to make significant gains this fall.
