Polling News

For over three weeks, the U.S. House of Representatives went without a Speaker. Historical data shows this dysfunction may be here to stay.

Why It Matters: As Fivethirtyeight.com notes, “…the 118th Congress is a perfect storm, a rare combination of forces that generated a particularly uncooperative majority. But it could also mean that the 118th Congress is just a taste of what’s to come in the future, a new trend of dysfunction breaking from centuries of House tradition.”

By The Numbers:

• Since 1913, the majority party has had a margin of fewer than nine seats in just 1917-19 and 1931-33.
• Republicans had a one-seat majority in 1917-19 but grew their majority to 48 after the 1918 election. 
• Republicans held a two-seat majority again after the 1930 midterm, but after the 1932 election, Democrats held a 194-seat majority.
• After the 1998 election, the GOP’s majority hovered between 10-12 seats between 1999-2003, but by 2003-05, Republicans had expanded that majority to 24.

The Bottom Line: The likelihood for dysfunction is at a higher probability, thanks to the fact that the opportunities to elect more members willing to unite and compromises and the number of swing districts has dwindled. Now that Speaker Mike Johnson has taken the gavel, Republicans have the opportunity to buck history and again be the party of governing and results. Time will tell, but it will take sustained leadership of the new speaker and his team to achieve this result.