The victories of far-left Senate Democratic candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Troy Jackson in Maine, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota and others in assorted House districts give Republicans openings for the midterms, but only if handled correctly.
President Trump missed the mark last week in Las Vegas when promoting his tax exclusion for tips. He opened the argument smartly, saying Republicans are “working every day to defend the American Dream for you and your children.”
But then he claimed “the radical left, the maniacs, they’re trying to destroy it with the disaster known as not socialism [but] communism. . . . These are communists.” Mr. Trump suggested Republicans should say that if Democrats prevail, then “you’ll have nothing but death, squalor, poverty.”
This might have cheered his true believers but didn’t gain a single vote. Instead, it showed that he doesn’t understand public opinion, how he got elected, or what it’ll take to win this fall.
In the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, Mr. Trump’s overall approval rating is 39%. On specific issues, his numbers are often worse. On handling inflation, it’s 31%; Iran, 36%; Russia and Ukraine, 37%; the economy, 37%; foreign policy, 38%. He exceeds his overall approval number only on immigration (44%) and crime (45%). Even then, a majority disapprove of his handling of every issue.
The president dismisses bad numbers as “fake polls.” But his pollsters probably see similar results.
In 2024, I’d say that a bit more than a third of voters—around 35%—voted for him because they adored him. He could do no wrong in their eyes. They loved what he said and the middle finger he gave the media, elites and opponents. But they alone weren’t enough to elect him.
Mr. Trump got 49.8% of the popular vote and a 1.5-point victory in 2024 because, by my estimation, about 14% or 15% of voters decided that for all his flaws, they’d still vote for him. Things were better when he was in office and they couldn’t stand four more years of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. She was an extension of the Biden presidency. It was risky, but voting for Mr. Trump was voting for change.
No longer. But these reluctant 2024 Trump supporters are still crucial. Winning them over this fall requires that Republicans do seven things.
First, don’t gaslight voters. The president claimed in Las Vegas that he produced “the greatest economy we’ve ever had so far” with “the cost of rent, groceries and other staples . . . coming down very fast.” How many swing voters believe that? Claims that collide with Americans’ day-to-day experience got Mr. Biden into trouble and now Mr. Trump, too.
Second, screaming “communist” won’t win additional votes. Instead, use a Democratic candidate’s own words and policies. Remember the Trump 2024 “they/them” ad, featuring footage of Kamala Harris endorsing transgender surgery for convicts? Make Democratic candidates eat anything they say that’s extreme.
Third, don’t let Democrats get away with disavowing past outrageous positions. Point out how convenient their changes are. Ask when and why they changed their minds. Raise doubts, suggesting that they’re untrustworthy and nothing keeps them from reverting to those extreme views.
Fourth, don’t let Democrats escape from dangerous associations. If someone like Hasan Piker campaigned for them or another Democrat on the state ticket, make every Democrat defend every terrible comment Mr. Piker has made. Ask why Democrats would ever associate with someone like that.
Fifth, Republicans—especially those running against candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America or opponents who share their state ticket with DSA-backed Democrats—must explain why the DSA’s agenda won’t work and will hurt voters. The DSA doesn’t want Americans to have a landlord or mortgage. That logically means the government would assign your housing and you couldn’t accumulate wealth by buying a home and letting it grow in value.
Sixth, force normal Democrats to disavow DSA policies. Yes, that gives some Democrats an opportunity to say they won’t abolish ICE, defund the police or close prisons. But that could discourage some of their left-wing supporters from turning out.
