Democrats have led on the Generic Ballot for the last few months. This isn’t surprising, given that history generally favors the party out-of-power in a Midterm Election. If anything, it’s been surprising and a condemnation of their own brand that Democrats have not consistently led by more. That said, a recent Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll found that Democrats are more certain to vote.
By The Numbers:
Seventy-three percent of Democrats say the 2026 Midterm Elections are much more important than past Midterms, compared to 52% of Republicans and 51% of independents who say that same. Forty-one percent of self-identified “MAGA” Republicans believe these midterms are more important, while only 20% of non-MAGA Republicans believe the same.
Nearly 80% of Democrats say they’re absolutely certain to vote this November, compared to just 72% of Republicans and 59% of independents. Another 10% of Democrats say they’ll probably vote, along with 13% of Republicans and 16% of independents.
The Republican base is divided. Seventy-seven percent of self-identified MAGA Republicans say they are almost certain to vote in November, compared to 59% of non-MAGA Republicans who say the same.
The Bottom Line: President Donald Trump has had many victories over the last few weeks–in primary elections. Recent elections in Indiana, Kentucky, and Texas are just a few of the intraparty battles that have excited some of the base. It is unclear, however, how that will translate into November enthusiasm and turnout. In districts that will decide control of the House and states that will decide control of the Senate, MAGA base turnout will be key. But so far, it’s not enough to overcome Democrat enthusiasm.
