The electorate has shifted over the last ten years, in large part because of the changing allegiances of white non-college-educated working-class voters. President Donald Trump brought these voters to the GOP and they helped deliver the White House–especially in 2024. This demographic group has stayed with Trump the longest, but recent polls show he may be slipping with it.
By The Numbers:
Trump won this demographic by 66%-67% in all three of his presidential campaigns, but CNN found that today, his approval has fallen under 50%. Only 49% of them approve of the job Trump is doing, down from 63% from when he was sworn in last year.
In February 2025, Trump stood at 51% with voters with no college degrees overall, 43% with white voters with a college degree and 40% with overall voters with a college degree.
The Bottom Line: Those numbers are reflected across all recent polling (CBS, Fox News, Pew Research, CBS, NPR/PBS/Marist). CNN found the decline with this key group is largely because of the economy. Over half these voters say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse, especially when it comes to tariffs and the Iran War. The GOP faces the difficult challenge of transferring Trump’s unique coalition down ballot in this year’s fall Midterms. These numbers suggest that task just got a lot harder.
